Closing Time

As I previously mentioned, village elders distributed blood money to families of the victims of the massacre perpetrated by an American soldier earlier this week. However, read what one of the victim's relatives said to Afghan President Hamid Karzai: "I don't want any compensation. I don't want money, I don't want a trip to Hajj [pilgrimage], I don't want a house. I want nothing but the punishment of the Americans. This is my demand, my demand, my demand and my demand."*

What does this demonstrate? We can dismiss the relative's comment as atypical of "the people" of Afghanistan, but that would be disingenuous. My feeling is that Afghanis have, as Karzai puts it, "reached the end of the rope". Soldiers urinating on dead bodies, a massacre of civilians, and most importantly to the Afghanis, the Quran burning, shows that it is time to leave Afghanistan.

(Read Juan Cole's post about Afghanistan Senate Chanting Against the US.)

I support an accelerated withdrawal from Afghanistan, as Karzai calls for. The sooner the better.

What is there left to do?

1. Continue propping up Karzai? Can't happen. He needs to rule on his own, or (preferably) the Afghani Constitution has to change.

2. Talks with the Taliban? Collapsed. At least for now.

3. Keep an eye on Pakistan? The US doesn't need soldiers in Afghanistan to do that.

4. Oil? No oil here!

5. Fight Al-Qaeda? All signs point to very few Al-Qaeda fighters are actually in Afghanistan. Al-Qaeda has no allegiance to the country (outside of, probably, some nostalgia). They're probably in Yemen or Somalia instead. Those two are much more accommodating failed states at the moment. Pakistan is also a comfy haven.

The best option now is to withdraw combat troops and encourage a national dialogue -- covertly, if necessary. The US should set Karzai up to talk to the Taliban without a US presence at the meeting. If the US can get Karzai and the Taliban to come to an agreement, it would be in the interest of all involved. After that, focus on development.

With Friends Like These...

The "Iran Debate" is no longer just a debate about Iran. It is now the "Iran-Israel Debate", as the two are now inextricably linked. Due to Netanyahu's chest thumping, the Obama administration must now address the problem of Iran while hushing and simultaneously supporting a belligerent Israel. That's not to say that Obama is without options.

Britain to Join Obama in Discouraging a Strike on Iran

Take that, Bibi! Though the relationship between the US and Israel is strong, it might not be as strong as that "special relationship" between the US and the UK. For starters, we've fought two world wars alongside the UK. But most importantly, the US and the UK don't always agree on the issues, but we respect our differences of opinion. The US cannot, on the other hand, publicly disagree with Israel without significant political backlash (there is no American-British Public Affairs Committee). It's like that couple who can bicker and move on, versus that other couple who disagree on major issues but let their true feelings fester for years on end (and probably don't have much sex [don't read into that too much]).

Having David Cameron come out and support the US position is a good tactical move. It demonstrates distance between the US and the Israeli position, without actually saying it. Furthermore, Cameron is allowed to say things that Obama could never get away with. For example, "We've been very clear; If there was an Israeli strike, we wouldn't support them."

Score one for reading between the lines.

Chariots of Fire? No. Liar, Liar, Pants on Fire? Yep.

This would be funny if it wasn't true: A man drove a stolen vehicle on to the landing strip where Defense Secretary Leon Panetta was scheduled to land. The man in the vehicle was on fire.

You read that correctly. The man was on fire. Read it here.

My favorite part of the article is the correction at the bottom:

Correction: March 14, 2012

A news alert and a headline on an earlier version of this article mischaracterized the initial reports of the incident at the base in Afghanistan. The Pentagon officials did not refer to the stolen car igniting; they described a flaming man emerging from the stolen car.

Insanity.

What is there to write about when a U.S. soldier kills 16 civilians, and mostly children? We can blame the tour-based system, inquire as to how he was allowed to leave the base alone at 3am, and we can blame the war for pushing him to the breaking point. But when it comes down to it, we should be ashamed. And we should show it.

Read the story here.

I do have some thoughts on the fallout and what should be done.

• I am certain that this sergeant will get a much quicker trial than Private Manning. That makes me uncomfortable.
• The sergeant should be tried in Afghanistan. No, he should not be tried by an Afghan court under Afghan laws. He should be tried by an American military court, but it should be held in Afghanistan. It seems only appropriate. And the trial should be transparent. If he is secreted away to an undisclosed location and never heard of again, it would be a grave injustice and an insult to the families of those killed.
• An insanity plea would be insane. The man killed children. He cannot be acquitted based on a plea.
• The U.S. should consult Afghan elders as to the next appropriate actions. If the Quran burning incident has taught us anything, I hope it is that the U.S. military should be sensitive to the cultural setting in which they are operating. If "blood money" is appropriate (I don't know Afghan custom), then that's how it should be handled.

Expanding on that last thought a little further: I remember a scene in the documentary "Restrepo" where the American captain is negotiating with Afghan tribal elders. In the scene, he repeatedly uses words like "fuck" and commands his translator to "fucking tell them" etc. It was painfully obvious that this guy is a soldier -- not a diplomat. That's not a judgment against him. I don't think he should have to be in that position, acting as a kind of military governor. He's a soldier and that's what he should concentrate on.

Keeping that in mind, I think that there should be "field diplomats" to fulfill this role instead. They would be tied to the military, but acting in a non-combat role. Versed in local history and customs (and hopefully some linguistics), field diplomats would be the ones to negotiate with locals, liaison with the "host" government, and tend to the general administration of, eh, "liberated" areas.

Just a thought.

Concerning the sergeant, I cannot say what his fate should be. He has to have a trial. Leon Panetta says that the death penalty "could be a consideration". Whatever. All I know is that this whole process must be public, appropriate, and genuine.

Palestinian Patience, part 2

My assertion made in yesterday's post is true! The Palestinian-Israeli conflict is important to most Arabs (84%), says a new poll by the Arab Centre for Research and Policy Studies, as cited in an Al Jazeera article. The poll also highlights that the US and Israel are seen as the most threatening countries (what I phrased as "general anti-Americanism" is basically the same thing).

Copying and pasting from the article, here are the highlights of the poll. I'll add bold to those points I think are worth highlighting:

• A majority describe themselves as religious, but they mostly don't support the interference of religious authorities in citizens' political choices.

71 per cent say they don't distinguish between religious and non-religious people in their economic and social relations.

77 per cent trust their military, half trust their police, 47 per cent trust their governments and 36 per cent trust their local councils before the revolutions.

A high 83 per cent believe corruption is widespread in their countries.

Only 19 per cent see their states implement the law equally among its citizens.

Three quarters of those polled believe that Arab states should take measures to bring their nations closer. An equal percentage believes that states should lift restrictions on free travel and 67 per cent are not satisfied with Arab-Arab co-operation.

Contrary to mainstream global media coverage, 73 per cent of those polled see Israel and the US as the two most threatening countries. Five per cent see Iran as the most threatening, a percentage that varies between countries and regions.

A high 84 per cent believe the Palestinian question is the cause of all Arabs and not the Palestinians only.

A high 84 per cent reject the notion of their state's recognition of Israel and only 21 per cent support, to a certain degree, the peace agreement signed between Egypt, Jordan and the PLO with Israel. Less than a third agree with their government's foreign policy.

When it comes to WMD, 55 per cent support a region free of nuclear weapons and 55 per cent see Israel's possession of nuclear weapons as justifying there possession by other countries in the region.

There you have it (with awful formatting -- my bad). Nothing in this poll should really come as a surprise. Israel and the US as the most threatening countries? Well, yeah, that makes sense from an Arab perspective. Let's be frank: Iran hasn't invaded anybody within the past 50 years, at least. During that time, Israel has invaded Lebanon a half dozen times, the US invaded Iraq twice, Afghanistan once, has a heavy presence in Yemen, had an unwelcome presence in Saudi Arabia, and was buddy-buddy with Mubarak (and I'm leaving stuff out because I'm not too familiar with the 1967 war, for example). I get it. Are the ayatollahs crazy and do they suppress the Iranian population and commit crimes against their people? Yes! But are they an existential threat to Moroccans or Jordanians? Directly, no. Can the US directly harm people in these countries? Well, yeah (see my post about drone strikes in the Philippines here). There would be no reason for that to happen, but the capability exists and the missiles have been fired in Yemen, Somalia, Sudan (Clinton's strike on the "pharmaceutical" factory in Sudan pre-9/11), Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Libya (sorta)... I get it. The US is seen as a threat. Check.

Widespread corruption? Yup. I would have added "unemployment" to the list. It seems that every time I read or see interviews about drug smuggling, kidnapping, or other illegal and harmful activity, the participants always cite the fact that they don't have a job as the primary reason that they got involved in these crimes in the first place. I get it.

Eighty four percent think that the Palestinian question is the cause of all Arabs, not the Palestinians only? Initially, I'm very uncomfortable with the way that is phrased. The sentence seems to imply that the Palestinian question is not within the jurisdiction of Palestinians to handle, i.e. the other Arabs have a say in what happens, not solely the Palestinians. Personally, I have wondered if this conflict has dragged on long enough to indeed warrant an international solution -- meaning, that since the Israelis and Palestinians can't come to an agreement, one must be imposed. I haven't come to a conclusion (I'm willing to hear arguments!). Therefore, is the Palestinian question the cause of all Arabs (I'll substitute "all involved")? Yeah. I guess. But it still makes me squirm to phrase it that way.

Let me think about that one.

Palestinian Patience

I was thinking about just this the other day: The Palestinians have not been in the news for a while. Last I remember, some time in late January there was the announcement that Meshal was stepping down as leader-in-exile of Hamas (*), and that there were serious negotiations about reconciling Hamas and Fatah. Since then, nothing.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/08/world/middleeast/arab-spring-and-iran-tensions-leave-palestinians-sidelined.html?hp

With media attention focused on other Middle Eastern protest movements and revolutions, the Palestinians feel marginalized.

That makes perfect sense, however, I think this is a short-term problem for them. The occupation of the West Bank and Gaza is a rallying cry for most in the Middle East, and is one of the few issues that has widespread support in the Arab streets and in the Arab governments (the only other I can think of is a general anti-Americanism; and the two are most definitely related).

Once things settle down and functioning governments emerge in Egypt and Libya and Syria, expect the Palestinian cause to be taken up again with more fervor than ever before. In short, the Palestinians need patience. If the Arab Spring lives up to its potential and installs governments that actually represent their respective people's opinions, then Palestine will not be forgotten. It will just take time.

Moros The Same

The title for my dissertation at LSE was "Islam and the Philippines: Effects of the United States Occupation on the Muslims in the Southern Philippines, 1899-1934". In it, I argued that through disarmament of the population, education, and political empowerment, the Americans effectively gave the "Moros" -- Muslim Philippinos -- the opportunity to influence their own path. For the first time in 400 years, Moros were ready to decide for themselves what was best and what was next. That was in 1934.

This article (here) sums up nicely how the story unfolds: Basically, after Philippine independence, the Northern (Christian, Manila-based) Philippinos dominated and suppressed the Muslims, leading to bloodshed, retaliatory killings, and civil war. Groups dedicated to defending the Moros way of life and to battling against the Manila-based administration exist to this day, some (notably Abu Sayyaf) with purported ties to Al Qaeda. The conflict is not simple, and it is not one-sided.

The above cited article makes the case for mediation between the two groups, semi-autonomous status for the Moros, and development of the southern islands -- not military campaigns and cycles of retaliation.

Re-enter the United States, and this time it's not General Pershing and American doughboys in the jungle. That is so 1911. This time, it's combat advisers and drone strikes. Make no mistake about it: drone strikes are good at assassinating specific targets (read: killing people). They are not, however, good at solving a 400 year old political, social, economic and religious problem.

If the past ten years has taught us anything, it should be that we cannot kill our way out of a complicated situation.